Environment

Extremely dangerous Tropical Cyclone “Hola” heading toward Loyalty Islands


Tropical Cyclone “Hola” is strengthening between Vanuatu and New Caledonia as it heads toward the Loyalty Islands. By the time Hola reaches the islands on March 9, it will have winds of 222 km/h (138 mph) and gusts to 259 km/h (161 mph), strong enough to cause catastrophic damage. 

At 09:00 UTC today, the center of Tropical Cyclone “Hola” was located approximately 300 km (187 miles) W of Port Vila, Vanuatu and 507 km (315 miles) N of Noumea, New Caledonia and has tracked SSW at 7 km/h (4.6 mph) over the past six hours. Its maximum sustained winds were 175 km/h (109 mph) with gusts to 213 km/h (132 mph).

This made Hola a Category 4 tropical cyclone on the Fiji intensity scale or a Category 2 hurricane equivalent in the Atlantic.

Tropical Cyclone “Hola” RSMC Nadi forecast track at 07:24 UTC on March 8, 2018

Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts a small but well defined tropical cyclone with a small eye, JTWC noted 09:00 UTC today.

Although hola is experiencing moderate vertical wind shear, it is benefiting from good equatorward outflow, excellent poleward outflow and favorable sea surface temperatures (29 – 30 °C / 84 – 86 °F). 

Hola is expected to track southeastward along the periphery of subtropical ridge located to the east. In the short term, the system will continue to increase in intensity, reaching a peak intensity of 222 km/h (138 mph) by 09:00 UTC, March 9 before beginning to weaken. By 09:00 UTC on March 11, Hola will begin extratropical transition and complete it by 09:00 UTC, March 12.

Tropical Cyclone Hola at 10:50 UTC, March 8, 2018

Tropical Cyclone “Hola” at 10:50 UTC, March 8, 2018. Credit: JMA/Himawari-8

Tropical Cyclone Hola JTWC forecast track at 09:00 UTC on March 8, 2018

Tropical Cyclone “Hola” JTWC forecast track at 09:00 UTC on March 8, 2018

Dynamic model guidance remains in good agreement over the next 48 hours and calls for a direct hit to Loyalty Islands (population 18 000) as extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane equivalent.

By the time Hola reaches the islands on March 9, it will have winds of 222 km/h (138 mph) and gusts to 259 km/h (161 mph), strong enough to cause catastrophic damage.

Potential damage: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

Along with powerful winds, Hola is bringing very heavy rain, raising the threat of floods.

The two animations below show ECMWF wind gust and precipitation model:

Hola, or what’s left of it, will reach North Island, New Zealand on March 12, bringing heavy rain and damaging winds.

Featured image: Tropical Cyclone Hola at 10:50 UTC on March 8, 2018. Credit: JMA/Himawari-8



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