A new low will form off the Southeast Coast by Monday morning and bring a multitude of hazards to the Mid-Atlantic and New England through Tuesday, including snow, minor coastal flooding and the potential for strong winds. This will be the third nor’easter to hit the region in 10 days. Its track is still uncertain and any small change can drastically change the forecast.
An evolving storm system over the south-central United States on Sunday, March 11 will be the main weather story through early Tuesday, NWS forecaster David Hamrick said.
A surface low over the Deep South is forecast to become better organized as a shortwave disturbance approaches from the western High Plains. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be widespread across most of the southeast US as deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico surges northward and interacts with a warm front.
Some areas from Mississippi to southern Georgia could get 25 mm (1 inch) or more of rainfall through Monday, and there is also a slight risk for severe thunderstorms over the central Gulf Coast region.
By Monday morning, a new surface low is forecast to develop near the southeast coast and become a nor’easter as it intensifies and moves toward the northeast, Hamrick said.
There is still some uncertainty on the future track of this storm and thus the direct impacts it will have from the Mid-Atlantic to New England.
The best prospects for accumulating snow will be for the southern and central Appalachians and interior portions of New England. If the nor’easter tracks closer to the coast, then high winds and coastal flooding will be an issue.
“The storm is expected to rapidly strengthen Monday night into Tuesday, potentially undergoing bombogenesis,” said Kristina Pydynowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
While the strongest and most damaging winds should remain offshore, the storm is still anticipated to track close enough to threaten the coast with gusty winds and coastal flooding and spread disruptive snow from the southern mid-Atlantic to New England, Pydynowski added.
As the storm tracks to the coast, snow or rain changing to snow is expected to unfold from Kentucky to Virginia and North Carolina Sunday night into Monday.
Several inches of snow may accumulate across central Kentucky, southwestern Virginia and the northern mountains of North Carolina. Motorists planning to travel on interstates 64, 77 and 81 on Monday morning can face reduced visibility and slick travel.
Parents should prepare for possible school delays or cancellations.
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